Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
